Swong Sim 2026 Guide (+ Download)

Swong Sim is a simple yet powerful tool designed for poker players who want to understand variance in Spin & Go. Variance is that sometimes frustrating fluctuation that can influence your short-term results. With Swong Sim, you can simulate series of games to visualize these fluctuations and anticipate the ups and downs you might encounter.

Swong Sim is a bankroll simulator designed for poker players who want to understand variance in Spin & Go.

Variance is that sometimes frustrating fluctuation that can influence your short-term results. With Swong Sim, you can simulate series of games to visualize these fluctuations and anticipate the ups and downs you might encounter.

Variance is an unavoidable reality in Spin & Go, and it can often feel unfair. You've probably experienced those moments where, despite playing well, the results just aren't there. This can lead to doubts, pushing you to wonder if what's happening is normal or if you've unconsciously changed the way you play.

This is where Swong Sim becomes particularly useful. This tool lets you simulate different series of games based on your own statistics, to determine what is mathematically possible in terms of fluctuations (swings). You'll be able to know if a bad streak is due to simple variance or if it falls outside normal expectations.

Bankroll simulation based on prize distribution and CEV

One of Swong Sim's key features is its ability to simulate your bankroll evolution by taking into account the prize distribution on your room and your Chip EV (CEV). Through these simulations, you can see how different prize distribution scenarios can impact your bankroll over the long term.

Let's take a concrete example: imagine you have a CEV of 40, and you want to simulate your bankroll evolution over 1,000 games with your room's prize distribution. Swong Sim will let you visualize several possible scenarios, based on this distribution and your CEV.

CEV simulation based on your theoretical CEV

Swong Sim also offers simulations based on your theoretical CEV. This allows you to visualize the potential gaps between your expected results and your actual results over a large sample of games. In other words, Swong Sim helps you evaluate whether your current results are in line with your expectations or if variance is playing a major role in your performance.

Run analysis

Swong Sim also offers an in-depth analysis of your run, allowing you to better understand elements such as your expected ROI, the probabilities of experiencing downswings, or finding out the lowest point of your journey.

Let's take a concrete example: imagine you've played 5,000 games with a CEV of 50. You're going through a period where your results are well below that number. Using Swong Sim, you can see that you had a 50% chance of experiencing a downswing of more than 84 buy-ins, a 20% chance of reaching a lowest point of at least -67 buy-ins, and a 50% chance of having a breakeven streak longer than 1,600 games. If you've only lost 40 buy-ins, you can put things in perspective.

Step-by-step guide to get started

When you open Swong Sim, you'll land on this page:

The first step is to enter the prize pool structure of the room you play on, which you can usually find on their website. For this example, I'll manually enter the Twister structure (iPoker network) on the .fr site.

Next, you need to set the number of simulations and the number of games per simulation. By default, Swong Sim offers 100 simulations of 10,000 games. This means it will generate 100 profit curves, each representing the evolution over 10,000 games. However, you can adjust these parameters to your needs.

In the third step, you need to enter your theoretical CEV. If you don't know it yet, you can estimate it based on your past results or what you think you can achieve.

In my case, for example, I'll enter 46 as my theoretical CEV.

Next, you can enter your rakeback as well as any bonuses you might receive. This data is important for a complete view of your potential long-term earnings. In my example, I'll enter 40% rakeback.

At this point, Swong Sim already gives you an estimate of your theoretical earnings. In my example, I should theoretically win 37 buy-ins before rakeback, and 157 buy-ins when accounting for the 40% rakeback.

Then, go to the Visualizer tab to view the simulation results. To improve the graph readability, enter 600 in the "Graph Height" field to adjust the graph height. Once done, click Draw new to generate a new graph.

On the graph, buy-ins are shown on the vertical axis on the right, while the number of games is at the bottom, on the horizontal axis. Each curve represents a possible evolution of your earnings based on variance. The average result is approximately 165 buy-ins. This means that, across all simulations, this is the average theoretical outcome.

In more detail, 20% of simulations show earnings below 63 buy-ins, while 20% of results are above 252 buy-ins. This means that with these statistics, you have about a 60% chance of earning between 63 and 252 buy-ins after playing the simulated number of games.

Don't enter all jackpots

It may be tempting to include jackpots with very high multipliers in the prize pool structure, but these exceptional results are rare and can skew your simulations. It's better to assume you won't hit them and base your simulations on more regular earnings, without counting on these merely potential jackpots.

Think of them as bonuses: if you get them, great; if not, that's perfectly normal. Typically, this applies to jackpots x200 and above.

Simulate with a realistic volume

When setting up your simulations, make sure the number of games is representative of your usual playing volume. Simulating too few games will make the results too variable to be reliable, while an unrealistic volume could smooth out the curves and mask the true variance you might experience day to day. Adapt your simulations to your playing pace for more relevant results.

Factor in your rakeback

Don't forget to include your rakeback in the simulations for a complete view of your actual earnings. If you have ongoing bonuses or regular promotions on your room, include them in your estimate. This will help you better anticipate your bankroll evolution with all income included.

Swong Sim was a major inspiration when we developed Poker Spin Tracker, our poker tracker dedicated to Spin players. Seeing the usefulness of this simulator, we wanted to integrate a bankroll simulator directly into our tool, but make it much easier to set up and use.

Where Swong Sim requires you to manually enter prize structures and several parameters, Poker Spin Tracker automatically retrieves your game data, making the simulation much faster and more accessible.