To download Swong Sim, click the link. You’ll reach a Dropbox page; then click on Download. A window will open asking you to log in; instead, click on "or continue to download only" to bypass logging in.
Unfortunately, this software is only available on Windows.
Swong Sim is a simple yet powerful tool designed for poker players who want to understand variance in Spin & Go.
Variance is that sometimes frustrating fluctuation that can influence your short-term results. With Swong Sim, you can simulate series of games to visualize these fluctuations and anticipate the ups and downs you might encounter. This allows you to have a clear perspective on the potential evolution of your bankroll and avoid misinterpreting your short-term results.
Variance is an unavoidable reality in Spin & Go, and it can often seem unfair. You've likely experienced those moments when, despite playing well, your results don’t align with your expectations. This can lead to doubt, making you wonder if what you're experiencing is normal or if you've subconsciously changed your style of play.
This is where Swong Sim becomes especially useful. This tool allows you to simulate different series of games based on your own statistics to determine what is mathematically possible in terms of fluctuations (swings). This way, you can understand whether a rough patch is simply due to variance or if it falls outside usual patterns.
<span class="inarticle_section">🔎 In the same way, Swong Sim helps you put good runs into perspective, showing whether your results are merely a matter of luck or a reflection of your true skill level.</span>
One of the key features of Swong Sim is its ability to simulate the evolution of your bankroll taking into account the prize distribution on your platform and your Chip EV (CEV). Through these simulations, you can see how different prize distribution scenarios might impact your bankroll over the long term.
Let’s take a concrete example: Imagine you have a CEV of 40 and want to simulate the evolution of your bankroll over 1,000 games with your platform’s prize distribution. Swong Sim will allow you to visualize several possible scenarios based on this distribution and your CEV. This way, you can anticipate potential swings and adjust your bankroll management to stay competitive even during challenging times.
Swong Sim also offers simulations based on your theoretical CEV. This allows you to visualize potential discrepancies between your expected and actual results over a large sample of games. In other words, Swong Sim helps you assess whether your current results align with your expectations or if variance plays a significant role in your performance.
<span class="inarticle_section">📕 For example, if you have a theoretical CEV of 40 chips per game, you can simulate different game series to see how your Chip EV might fluctuate within normal variance. This simulation allows you to estimate the likelihood that your actual CEV will be lower or higher than this average over several thousand games.</span>
Swong Sim also offers an in-depth analysis of your run, helping you better understand elements such as your expected ROI, the likelihood of experiencing downswings, and the lowest point in your journey.
Let’s take a concrete example: imagine you have played 5,000 games with a CEV of 50 and are going through a period where your results are significantly below this figure.
Using Swong Sim, you can see that you had a 50% chance of experiencing a downswing of over 84 buy-ins, a 20% chance of reaching a low point of at least -67 buy-ins, and a 50% chance of having a breakeven stretch (breakeven meaning you neither lose nor gain money) lasting longer than 1,600 games. So if you’ve only lost 40 buy-ins, you can put things in perspective.
When you open Swong Sim, you arrive at this page:
The first step is to enter the prize pool structure of the platform you're playing on, which you can usually find on their website. Swong Sim offers a preset selection of payout structures, but these are not always up to date. For this example, I will manually enter the Twister structure (iPoker network) for the .fr site.
Next, you need to set the number of simulations and the number of games per simulation. By default, Swong Sim offers 100 simulations of 10,000 games. This means it will generate 100 profit curves, each representing the evolution over 10,000 games. However, you can adjust these settings based on your needs.
<span class="inarticle_section">📕 For example, if you want to simulate a month of grinding, which is about 4,000 games, you can reduce the number of games per simulation to 4,000 to get results more representative of your playing volume.</span>
In the third step, you need to enter your theoretical CEV. If you don't know it yet, you can estimate it based on past results or what you believe you can achieve.
<span class="inarticle_section">🔎 The CEV, or "Chip EV," represents the average number of chips won per game. It's challenging to give probable CEV figures because it depends on each player's skill level, the stakes played, the format, and even the site you're playing on.</span>
For my example, I'll enter 46 as my theoretical CEV.
Then, you can enter your rakeback as well as any bonuses you might receive. This information is important to get a complete view of your long-term potential earnings. In my example, I'll enter 40% rakeback.
At this point, Swong Sim already provides an estimate of your theoretical winnings. In my example, I should theoretically win 37 buy-ins before rakeback, and 157 buy-ins, considering the 40% rakeback.
To visualize potential fluctuations of these earnings across various scenarios, simply start the simulation by clicking RUN. This will display the different profit curves, representing the variations in results across the 100 simulations performed.
Then, go to the Visualizer tab to view the simulation results. To enhance the graph's readability, enter 600 in the "Graph Height" field to adjust the graph's height. Once that's done, click Draw New to generate a new graph. You will then see a visual representation of the different profit curves, illustrating the fluctuations in your results across the simulations performed.
On the graph, buy-ins are shown on the vertical axis on the right, while the number of games is displayed at the bottom on the horizontal axis. Each curve represents a potential evolution of your profits according to variance. The average result is approximately 165 buy-ins, meaning that across all simulations, this is the most probable theoretical result.
More specifically, 20% of the simulations show profits below 63 buy-ins, while 80% of the results are above 252 buy-ins. This means that with these statistics, you have about a 60 % chance of winning between 63 and 252 buy-ins after playing the simulated number of games.
To access the precise details of your run, go to the Text Output. This tab displays detailed information on each simulation, such as the risk of downswings, potential ROI, and breakeven chances.
It can be tempting to include jackpots with very high multipliers in the prize pool structure, but these exceptional results are rare and can skew your simulations. It’s better to assume that you won’t hit them and base your simulations on more regular gains, without counting on these jackpots, which are only potential. Think of them as bonuses: if you get them, great; if not, that’s perfectly normal. Typically, this refers to jackpots of x200 and beyond. This approach will give you much more realistic projections of your future results.
<span class="inarticle_section">🍀 It’s generally advisable to exclude jackpots with a probability of occurrence below one in 10,000.</span>
When setting up your simulations, make sure that the number of games is representative of your usual playing volume. Simulating too few games will make the results too variable to be reliable, while an unrealistic volume might smooth out the curves and hide the true variance you could encounter on a daily basis. Tailor your simulations to your playing pace to obtain more relevant results.
Don’t forget to include your rakeback in the simulations to get a complete view of your real gains. If you have ongoing bonuses or regular promotions on your platform, include them in the estimate. This will help you better anticipate the evolution of your bankroll with all income included.
