Chapter 2: Jackpots and rake: where does the money go?
In this chapter, we'll analyze the financial structure of Spin & Go to determine how much money can actually be won.
Gandalf
Professional Spin & Go player, co-founder of Poker Sciences
In Spin you're playing 1 vs 3. You're fighting against two players... and the house.
Introduction
In this chapter, we'll analyze the structure of a Spin & Go, focusing specifically on jackpot distribution and the rake, in order to determine how much money can actually be won in this format.
This chapter and the next one will be a bit more technical, so if the mathematical aspect seems too complex, feel free to skip ahead to the end of the chapters and read the "Summary" section.
To do this, we'll break down the Expressos at €1 (Winamax) and the Spin & Rush at €1 (Betclic). You'll be able to replicate the analysis for any Spin format afterwards.
Jackpot distribution
First, let's take a look at how jackpots are distributed.
Every time you launch a Spin, you have a predetermined chance of landing on a certain multiplier:
| Multiplier | Probability |
|---|---|
| x100,000 | 4 / 10,000,000 |
| x1,000 | 100 / 10,000,000 |
| x100 | 2,000 / 10,000,000 |
| x50 | 10,000 / 10,000,000 |
| x10 | 150,000 / 10,000,000 |
| x5 | 400,000 / 10,000,000 |
| x4 | 825,000 / 10,000,000 |
| x3 | 2,674,208 / 10,000,000 |
| x2 | 5,938,688 / 10,000,000 |
| Multiplier | Probability |
|---|---|
| x1,000 | 5 / 1,000,000 |
| x100 | 100 / 1,000,000 |
| x20 | 500 / 1,000,000 |
| x10 | 5,000 / 1,000,000 |
| x5 | 40,000 / 1,000,000 |
| x4 | 130,000 / 1,000,000 |
| x3 | 346,210 / 1,000,000 |
| x2 | 478,185 / 1,000,000 |
For example, on Winamax, you have 5,938,688 chances out of 10 million of getting a x2 multiplier. In other words, you get a x2 multiplier roughly 3 out of 5 times.
Another example: on Betclic, you have a 1 in 200 chance of getting a x10 multiplier.
The crucial question is: if each player pays €1 to enter and there are 3 players, does the winner receive an average of €3?
Well, no — because the site takes a portion of the buy-in and redistributes the rest. As you've probably guessed: that portion is called the rake.
Calculating the rake
We'll see that in Spins, the rake is somewhat "hidden" within the jackpot distribution.
Let's calculate the rake for Expressos and Spins on Betclic together. To do this, we'll calculate the total amount of buy-ins that Winamax and Betclic pay back to players in the form of jackpots.
As this Excel table shows, Winamax pays back just over €27 million in jackpots over 10 million games. (€11,877,376 in x2 multipliers, €8,022,624 in x3, €3,300,000 in x4, etc.).
| Multiplier | Probability | Sum (€) |
|---|---|---|
| x100,000 | 4 / 10,000,000 | 400,000 |
| x1,000 | 100 / 10,000,000 | 100,000 |
| x100 | 2,000 / 10,000,000 | 200,000 |
| x50 | 10,000 / 10,000,000 | 500,000 |
| x10 | 150,000 / 10,000,000 | 1,500,000 |
| x5 | 400,000 / 10,000,000 | 2,000,000 |
| x4 | 825,000 / 10,000,000 | 3,300,000 |
| x3 | 2,674,208 / 10,000,000 | 8,022,624 |
| x2 | 5,938,688 / 10,000,000 | 11,877,376 |
| Total | €27,900,000 |
| Multiplier | Probability | Sum (€) |
|---|---|---|
| x1,000 | 5 / 1,000,000 | 5,000 |
| x100 | 100 / 1,000,000 | 10,000 |
| x20 | 500 / 1,000,000 | 10,000 |
| x10 | 5,000 / 1,000,000 | 50,000 |
| x5 | 40,000 / 1,000,000 | 200,000 |
| x4 | 130,000 / 1,000,000 | 520,000 |
| x3 | 346,210 / 1,000,000 | 1,038,630 |
| x2 | 478,185 / 1,000,000 | 956,370 |
| Total | €2,790,000 |
In each game, 3 players each pay €1. Over 10 million games, that makes a total of €30 million collected.
Out of those €30 million collected, Winamax pays back, as we said, €27,900,000 — which means €2,100,000 stays in Winamax's coffers.
That amounts to 7% of the total (2,100,000 / 30,000,000 = 0.07, i.e. 7%).
The rake on Winamax Expressos is therefore 7%. This means Winamax takes 7% of the players' stakes in every game.
By doing the same calculation for Betclic, we also arrive at a rake of 7%.
Rake is therefore an important concept to understand, as it reduces a portion of your potential winnings. On most platforms, the Spin rake is 7%.
→ For comparison, the rake in MTTs is often around 10%.
Summary
When playing Spins, approximately 93% of your buy-in is redistributed across the various jackpots, and 7% (the rake) is kept by the platform.
We need to factor in this rake to understand how much it's actually possible to win in the long run. You may have an edge over your opponents, but it's also important to understand that the rake eats into a portion of your winnings.
This is exactly what we'll look at in the next chapter: how many ITMs do you need to beat the rake?