Equity is a key concept for any player looking to optimize their decisions in poker. In this article, we explain what equity is, how to calculate it and why it plays a crucial role in a profitable poker strategy.
<span class="inarticle_section">📝 Definition: Poker equity represents your chances of winning the pot at a specific moment in the hand, based on the cards you hold and the cards yet to come.</span>
When we talk about equity, we are referring to the average percentage chance of winning. If you have 50% equity, it means that in a scenario where the game is played multiple times under the same conditions, you would win about half the time.
Therefore, equity always ranges between 0% (your chance of winning the hand is zero) and 100% (you are guaranteed to win the hand).
<span class="inarticle_section">📐 Mathematically, the sum of the equities of all players remaining in a hand is always equal to 100%.</span>
Equity should influence every decision you make at the table, whether it's to bet, raise, or even fold your cards.
For example, if you have a hand with 80% equity against your opponent's hand, you are in a very favorable position. Therefore, you should bet to maximize your winnings.
Conversely, if your equity is low, like 20%, it might be wiser to minimize your losses by folding, unless the pot odds justify a call.
<span class="inarticle_section">👉🏻 Simply put, the higher your chances of winning (high equity), the more you should be willing to invest money into the pot.</span>
Poker equity relies on a simple calculation. The formula is as follows:
This means that to estimate your chances of winning a hand, you need to examine all the possible scenarios where your hand would win, then compare them to the total number of conceivable scenarios.
In practice, this is very complex to do precisely, which is why tools and software like Equilab make this process easier for you.
If you have a pair of Aces against a random hand preflop, you can simulate hundreds of scenarios to calculate how many of them you would win. The percentage obtained gives you your equity, which represents your chances of winning.
In the case of a pair of Aces, Equilab gives approximately 85% equity:
<span class="inarticle_section">☝🏻 Note that equity is not static; it changes based on the community cards revealed as the hand progresses and the number of players still in the hand.</span>
When your only way to win is by hitting your straight or flush draw, there is a simple and quick way to roughly estimate your chances of success, depending on whether you are on the flop or the turn.
On the flop, you can multiply the number of outs by 4 to get a quick estimate of your equity. Outs are the cards that help you complete your draw.
For example:
With a flush draw (9 outs), you multiply 9 by 4, which gives you approximately 36% equity to complete your hand by the river.
<span class="inarticle_section">➕ A flush draw gives you 9 outs because there are 13 cards of each suit minus the 4 cards of your suit already revealed.</span>
On the turn, since only one card remains to be revealed (the river), you multiply your number of outs by 2.
For example:
If you still have 9 outs to hit a flush after the turn, this gives you approximately 18% equity to complete your draw with the last card.
<span class="inarticle_section">❓ To determine if your equity justifies a call, remember that generally, a call is profitable when the pot odds are lower than your equity.</span>
There are several effective tools to calculate the equity of your poker hands. Here is a comparison of the three most popular calculators:
PokerStove : Simple, free, and fast, it allows you to calculate equity in just a few clicks. Although its interface is a bit outdated, PokerStove remains highly accurate and efficient for simple scenarios. However, it lacks the advanced features found in other calculators.
Equilab : Widely recognized as one of the most versatile free tools, Equilab not only provides precise equity calculations but also an intuitive interface that facilitates hand analysis. With Equilab, you can simulate complex situations and study your opponents' ranges. It's perfect for both beginners and advanced players. And like PokerStove, Equilab is free.
Flopzilla : Known for its advanced features, Flopzilla goes beyond simple equity calculations. It allows in-depth analysis of post-flop situations, taking into account opponents’ tendencies and board textures. Flopzilla is the ideal tool for players looking to improve their post-flop game. Its main downside is that it may seem more complex for new players due to its busy interface. Price: $25.
<span class="inarticle_section">➡️ If you are looking for a simple but accurate tool, PokerStove remains an excellent option. For more flexibility and depth in analysis, Equilab is a great choice. If you are willing to invest time in learning a more advanced tool, Flopzilla will offer you very detailed analysis possibilities.</span>
Note that during your online games, you won't have time to use these tools. They are designed to be used "off the tables," when you focus on improving your strategy.
Equity and probability are two closely related concepts in poker.
A probability simply refers to the chance that a specific event will occur.
For example:
Equity, on the other hand, goes further. It’s a kind of "super-probability" that encompasses a set of probabilities (probability of hitting your draw, probability that the opponent is bluffing, etc.) to estimate your chance of winning the pot.
To simplify:
Finally, let’s look at the table below which presents examples of situations where two players are all-in preflop.
For each situation (one situation = one row of the table), this table gives you the probabilities of winning (i.e., equity, if you’ve been following) for both players.
Since calculating your equity can be time-consuming, knowing the most common equities approximately can be a very interesting advantage in poker.
