Probabilities are an essential tool in poker. They help you evaluate your chances of beating your opponents, thus maximizing your long-term winnings.
In this article, we will look at 4 probability tables that will give you a solid foundation in this area. We also share a tip with you that will help you easily calculate probabilities in certain situations.
In general, when we talk about odds in poker, we are referring to pot odds.
Probabilities indicate the chances of getting a certain card or combination, while pot odds compare this chance to the amount you need to bet to stay in the game.
<span class="inarticle_section">☝️ Sometimes, it can be profitable to call for a draw with a very low probability if the pot odds are favorable (meaning that the amount you need to invest to stay in the hand is small compared to the pot size).</span>
To start, let's look at the starting hands probability table in poker:
You can see that you receive two cards of the same suit (spades, diamonds, hearts, or clubs) about a quarter of the time (23.5%) and that the probability of having a very strong hand like Ace-King or a pair of Aces is relatively low (1.2% and 0.45%, respectively).
Next, let’s look at the probability table of different combinations:
As you can see, it is relatively common in a hand of Texas Hold’em poker to make at least one pair (43.8% chance). On the other hand, getting a royal flush is extremely rare and happens only 0.0032% of the time, or about one in 31,000.
<span class="inarticle_section">⚠️ Note that this table shows the probabilities of obtaining each combination if all 5 community cards are revealed, meaning the hand goes all the way to the river. In reality, it is very common for players to fold on the flop or turn.</span>
In poker, it is very important to estimate the probabilities of improving your hand, especially when trying to complete a draw.
For example: if I have a flush draw (missing one card to complete a flush) and two cards are still to be revealed (turn and river), what is the probability of completing this draw?
The good news is that there is a formula that allows you to calculate this probability easily:
➡️ Multiply the number of your outs by 4.
For example: you have a flush draw, so you have 9 outs (13 cards of that suit - 4 cards already revealed). The probability of completing this flush draw if you go to the river is approximately 9 x 4 = 36%
➡️ Multiply the number of your outs by 2.
For example, still for a flush draw (so 9 outs), the probability of completing this flush on the river is approximately 9 x 2 = 18%
Now, let’s look at another probability table. It helps answer questions such as:
If I receive a pair of Aces preflop, what is the probability that I will win the hand if the game goes to the river?
Here is the table in question:
Thus, you can see that even with a pair of Aces, the best starting hand in poker, when there are 6 or more players, the probability of winning falls below 50%. The more players there are, the higher the risk that another hand will beat the Aces, and this happens relatively frequently.
The same goes for Ace-King (AK): against 2 other players, the probability of winning at the river is only 49%.
Despite the strength of these hands, nothing is ever certain, so you should not underestimate the chances that an opponent could beat them.
In this final section, we present a table that summarizes the winning probabilities when two players go all-in preflop:
This table gives a clearer idea of the main probabilities at play when two players go all-in preflop in poker.
For example:
Now that you have a better understanding of poker probabilities, you can read our article on odds which is a kind of continuation of this one on probabilities.
If you want to calculate a probability in a specific case, you can use the tool provided by Poker News: the odds calculator.
