Poker Probability - Cheat Sheet Charts
Discover key poker probabilities: starting hands, draws, and winning chances.
You'll see it's not that complicated...
Probabilities are an essential tool in poker. They help you assess your chances of beating your opponents and thus maximize your profits in the long run.
In this article, we will look at 4 probability charts that will give you a solid foundation in this area.
We also share a tip that will help you easily calculate probabilities in certain situations.
What is the difference between probability and odds?
In poker, when we talk about odds, we generally mean pot odds.
Probabilities indicate the chances of getting a certain card or combination, while pot odds compare that chance to the bet required to stay in the hand.
Sometimes, it can be profitable to pay for a draw that has a very low probability if the pot odds are very favorable (meaning the money you need to invest to stay in the hand is small compared to the size of the pot).
Preflop starting hand probabilities
Let's start by looking at the probability chart for starting hands in poker:
| Hand | Probability |
|---|---|
| Suited cards | 23.5% |
| At least one Ace | 15% |
| Pocket pair | 5.9% |
| Suited connectors | 3.9% |
| Ace-King | 1.2% |
| Pocket Aces | 0.45% |
You can see that you receive two suited cards (spades, diamonds, hearts, or clubs) about a quarter of the time (23.5%) and that the probability of getting a very strong hand like Ace-King or pocket Aces is relatively low (1.2% and 0.45% respectively).
Hand combination probabilities
Next, let's look at the probability chart for different poker hand combinations:
| Hand | Probability |
|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 0.0032% |
| Straight Flush | 0.028% |
| Four of a Kind | 0.17% |
| Full House | 2.6% |
| Flush | 3.03% |
| Straight | 4.62% |
| Three of a Kind | 4.83% |
| Two Pair | 23.5% |
| One Pair | 43.8% |
| High Card | 17.4% |
As you can see, it is relatively common during a hand of Texas Hold'em poker to make at least a pair (43.8% chance).
On the other hand, getting a royal flush is extremely rare, occurring only 0.0032% of the time — roughly one chance in 31,000.
This chart shows the probabilities of making each combination assuming all 5 community cards are revealed, meaning the hand goes all the way to the river. In practice, it is very common for all players to fold on the flop or the turn, which immediately ends the hand.
Draw completion probability (tip)
In poker, it is very important to be able to estimate the probabilities of improving your hand, especially when you want to complete a draw.
For example: if I have a flush draw (I need one more card to make a flush) and there are two cards left to come (turn and river), what is the probability of completing this draw?
The good news is that there is a formula to calculate this probability easily:
If there are two cards to come (turn and river)
Multiply the number of your outs by 4.
For example: you have a flush draw, so you have 9 outs (13 cards of that suit - 4 cards already revealed). The probability of completing this flush draw if you go to the river is approximately 9 x 4 = 36%.
If there is only one card to come (the river)
Multiply the number of your outs by 2.
For example: still for a flush draw (9 outs), the probability of completing this flush draw on the river is approximately 9 x 2 = 18%.
Win probabilities based on your 2 hole cards and number of players
Let's now look at another probability chart. It answers questions such as:
If I'm dealt pocket Aces preflop, what is the probability that I win the hand if it goes all the way to the river?
| Hand | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 85% | 74% | 49% | 39% | 32% |
| KK | 82% | 69% | 43% | 33% | 26% |
| 80% | 65% | 39% | 29% | 23% | |
| JJ | 77% | 62% | 35% | 29% | 23% |
| 77 | 66% | 47% | 23% | 17% | 14% |
| AK | 65% | 49% | 30% | 23% | 18% |
| AQ | 64% | 48% | 27% | 21% | 17% |
| AJ | 63% | 47% | 26% | 20% | 16% |
| KQ | 60% | 46% | 25% | 19% | 15% |
| 55 | 60% | 41% | 19% | 15% | 13% |
| 65s | 43% | 30% | 17% | 13% | 12% |
| A8 | 58% | 42% | 21% | 16% | 12% |
You can see that even with pocket Aces, the best starting hand in poker, from 6 players onward, the probability of winning drops below 50%. The more players there are, the higher the risk that a hand beats the Aces, and this happens relatively frequently.
The same goes for Ace-King (AK): against 2 other players, the probability of winning by the river is only 49%.
Despite the strength of these hands, nothing is ever certain. You should never underestimate the chances that an opponent can beat them.
Win probability when 2 players go all-in
In this final section, we present a chart summarizing the win probabilities when two players go all-in preflop:
| Player 1 hand | P1 win % | P2 win % | Player 2 hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pair (e.g. KK) | 85% | 15% | 2 lower cards (e.g. 79) |
| Pair (e.g. KK) | 81% | 19% | Lower pair (e.g. QQ) |
| Pair (e.g. KK) | 80% | 20% | Lower suited connectors (e.g. 89s) |
| Pair (e.g. KK) | 70% | 30% | 1 higher card (e.g. A2) |
| Pair (e.g. 88) | 54% | 46% | 2 higher cards (e.g. J9) |
| Higher kicker (e.g. A9) | 66% | 34% | Lower kicker (e.g. A6) |
| 2 cards (e.g. A9) | 66% | 34% | 2 lower cards (e.g. 86) |
This chart gives you a clearer picture of the main probabilities at play when two players go all-in preflop in poker.
For example:
- If you go all-in with A♠K♥ and a single player calls with 8♦8♠, your win probability is only about 46% (5th row of the chart).
- If you go all-in with A♦A♥ and a player calls with 4♣4♥, your win probability is 81% (2nd row of the chart). So expect to get your Aces "cracked" about 1 out of 5 times in this situation...
Learn more
If you want to calculate a probability for a specific scenario, you can use the tool provided by Poker News: probability calculator.
