Simulating your bankroll future

The previous chapter, The Bankroll curve, told the story of your past: where the gaps opened up, what your luck and your room did to it. The real question that comes next is far more direct:

The next 100 games, the next 5,000, and so on.

The tracker answers that question with a dedicated tool: the bankroll simulation . It takes your current sample, extends it into the future, and draws the curves you could end up with, given your CEV, your rakeback and your room's multiplier distribution.

To project your bankroll quickly, you don't need to open any menu: it can all be done straight from the chart.

The wheel uses your current CEV and your room setup as its assumptions. It answers the question:

The wheel is mainly there for a quick projection. If you want finer control over the assumptions (a different CEV, a target date, several draws), use the dedicated tool below instead.

Next to the Bankroll chart, a telescope icon opens the Bankroll Simulation window. A few parameters to set, a Simulate button.

The buy-in and starting stack fields carry over your current settings. Only change them to simulate a change of stakes or a different format.

📊The projected CEV: your skill assumption

By default, the field is pre-filled with your current CEV. You can change it to test a scenario: "what if I add 10 to my CEV?", "what if I move down in stakes and drop to 50?".

🎲The number of simulations: visualizing variance

At 1 simulation, the tracker draws a single future path, picked at random among millions of possible ones. At 10, 50 or 100 simulations, it draws that many at once, all with the same parameters. The curves stack up and form a fan: some end very high, others very low, most in the middle. It's the direct picture of what variance can produce at a constant skill level.

🏁The horizon: where you stop

Take your pick:

• Number of games: you directly pick a volume to add (500, 5,000, 50,000 games)
• Target date: you pick a future date, and the tracker works out the number of games from your recent playing pace. Handy to project to "the end of the month" or "the end of the year"

So when does this tool really earn its keep? There are plenty of cases. We walk through three of them below as examples, but the simulation lends itself to many other questions: don't hesitate to experiment on your own to dig into whatever interests you.

🧘Preparing your mental game before a session

Before a session, try it right now: run a simulation over 100 or 200 games with your current CEV. Then, at the bottom right of the chart, click several times on the circular Regenerate icon : each click produces a new draw with identical parameters.

You'll watch radically different runs go by: +50 buy-ins in one scenario, −30 buy-ins in the next, a flat run after that. Same player, same skill level, three evenings that look nothing alike.

⏳Anticipating the pink / purple convergence

The previous chapter raised the question: at what volume does my pink catch up with my purple? In other words:

It's a number genuinely worth knowing: it tells you over what horizon your current shortfall becomes recoverable.

To answer that, the mouse wheel is the ideal tool: put the cursor on the chart, push the simulated volume up little by little, and watch the pink converge (or not) onto the purple live.

On a room like Betclic, a bigger share of the expected money is spread across relatively reachable multipliers. The pink can therefore join the purple within a few tens of thousands of games.

On a room like Winamax, a far bigger share of the expected money is concentrated in very rare multipliers: even at 100,000 simulated games, the gap often stays visible. This is exactly the phenomenon we described in chapter 3 of module 2, made tangible on your own sample.

📅Planning a numbers-based goal

You set yourself a goal for the end of the month, or the end of the year. The target date simulation answers the question:

By running several draws, you get a realistic range instead of a round number plucked out of thin air.

This is the most important read in the chapter. When you run several simulations with the same parameters, the tracker layers them all onto the chart. Each faint curve is one possible run of your bankroll, drawn at random from the same statistical universe. To make that fan readable, five benchmark curves are drawn on top: the Top 10%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 90% percentiles.

Each percentile reads as "the share of runs that finish above":

• Top 10%: only 10% of runs finish higher. A very lucky scenario
• Top 25%: a quarter finish higher. A favorable scenario
• Top 50%: the median. As many above as below. The "typical" result at this volume
• Top 75%: a quarter finish lower. An unfavorable scenario
• Top 90%: only 10% finish lower. A very unlucky scenario

Concretely, in the image above (100 simulations of 20,000 games at the same CEV):

• 10% of the time, your bankroll ends above ~+€750
• 10% of the time, it ends below ~+€180
• 50% of the time, it lands around ~+€450

Same player, same level, same room, a fourfold spread from bottom to top. Just variance doing its job.

Two reference curves are drawn as well: the dotted purple (EV Profit, the theoretical slope at infinite volume) and the pink (Effective EV Profit, the slope you expect at your volume). The median of the simulations (Top 50%) tracks the pink closely: that makes sense, since the pink is precisely the expectation of what the simulation reproduces.

Short term vs long term

Over 500 or 1,000 games, the spread would be even wider in relative terms, with a far shakier median. Over 50,000 or 100,000 games, the percentiles tighten around the purple and pink slopes. But the real long term takes a volume most players never reach.

The simulation takes your real sample and extends it into the future, respecting your CEV, your rakeback and your room's multiplier distribution.