Simulating your bankroll future

The previous chapter, The Bankroll curve, told the story of your past: where the gaps opened up, what your luck and your room did to it. The real question that follows is much more direct:

The next 100 games, the next 5,000, and so on.

The tracker answers that question with a dedicated tool: the bankroll simulation . It takes your current sample, extends it into the future, and traces the curves you could have, given your CEV, your rakeback and your room's multiplier distribution.

To project your bankroll quickly, you don't need to open a menu: it can all be done from the chart.

The mouse wheel uses your current CEV and your room setup as assumptions. It answers the question:

The mouse wheel is mostly there for a quick projection. If you want to control the assumptions more finely (different CEV, target date, multiple draws), use the dedicated tool below instead.

Next to the Bankroll chart, a telescope icon opens the Bankroll Simulation window. A few parameters to configure, a Simulate button.

The buy-in and starting stack fields pick up your current parameters. Only change them to simulate a change of stake or a different format.

📊The projected CEV: your skill assumption

By default, the field is pre-filled with your current CEV. You can change it to test a scenario: "what if I add 10 to my CEV?", "what if I move down in stakes and end up at 50?".

🎲The number of simulations: visualizing variance

At 1 simulation, the tracker draws a single future trajectory, randomly picked from millions of possibilities. At 10, 50 or 100 simulations, it draws that many at once, all with the same parameters. The curves overlap and form a fan: some end up very high, others very low, most in the middle. It's the direct picture of what variance can produce at constant skill level.

🏁The horizon: where we stop

Two options:

• Number of games: you directly choose a volume to add (500, 5,000, 50,000 games)
• Target date: you pick a future date, and the tracker computes the number of games from your recent playing pace. Useful to project to "end of the month" or "end of the year"

So when does this tool actually become really useful? There are many cases. We detail three of them below as examples, but the simulation lends itself to plenty of other questions: don't hesitate to experiment on your own to dig into what interests you.

🧘Preparing your mental game before a session

Before a session, try it now: launch a simulation over 100 or 200 games with your current CEV. Then, at the bottom right of the chart, click several times on the circular Rerun icon: each click regenerates a new draw with the same parameters.

You'll see radically different runs scroll by: +50 buy-ins in one scenario, −30 buy-ins in the next, a flat run after that. Same player, same skill, three evenings that have nothing in common.

⏳Anticipating the pink/purple convergence

The previous chapter posed the question: at what volume does my pink catch up to my purple? In other words:

That's a real number worth knowing: it tells you at what horizon your current shortfall becomes recoverable.

To answer this, the mouse wheel is the ideal tool: hover the cursor over the chart, gradually push the simulated volume up, and watch the pink converge (or not) onto the purple live.

On a room like Betclic, a larger share of the expected money is spread across relatively accessible multipliers. The pink can therefore catch up to the purple within a few tens of thousands of games.

On a room like Winamax, a much larger share of the expected money is concentrated in very rare multipliers: even at 100,000 simulated games, the gap often stays visible. This is exactly the phenomenon we mentioned in chapter 3 of module 2, made tangible on your own sample.

📅Planning a numbered goal

You set yourself a goal for the end of the month, or the end of the year. The simulation by target date answers the question:

By running several draws, you get a realistic interval instead of a round number pulled out of thin air.

This is the most important read of the chapter. When you launch several simulations with the same parameters, the tracker layers them all on the chart. Each curve in the background is a possible run of your bankroll, randomly drawn from the same statistical universe. To make this fan readable, five reference curves are drawn on top: the Top 10%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 90% percentiles.

Each percentile reads as "the share of runs that finish above":

• Top 10%: only 10% of runs finish higher. A very lucky scenario
• Top 25%: a quarter finish higher. A favorable scenario
• Top 50%: the median. As many above as below. The "typical" result at this volume
• Top 75%: a quarter finish lower. An unfavorable scenario
• Top 90%: only 10% finish lower. A very unlucky scenario

Concretely, on the image above (100 simulations of 20,000 games at the same CEV):

• 10% of the time, your bankroll ends above ~+€750
• 10% of the time, it ends below ~+€180
• 50% of the time, it lands around ~+€450

Same player, same skill, same room, a fourfold spread. Just variance doing its job.

Two reference curves are also drawn: the dotted purple (EV Profit, theoretical slope at infinite volume) and the pink (Effective EV Profit, expected slope at your volume). The median of the simulations (Top 50%) closely follows the pink: that makes sense, since the pink is precisely the expectation that the simulation reproduces.

Short term vs long term

Over 500 or 1,000 games, the fan would be even wider in relative terms, with a much shakier median. Over 50,000 or 100,000 games, the percentiles tighten around the purple and pink slopes. But the real long term requires a volume most players never reach.

The simulation takes your real sample and extends it into the future, respecting your CEV, your rakeback and your room's multiplier distribution.